Sports wagering can be extremely profitable if anyone know the strategies often the “smart money” bettors work with to consistently make money. The most significant secrets that clever money gamblers use is definitely knowing when NOT for you to bet.

Here’s a perfect instance. I actually analyzed this Western Las vegas vs. Louisville sport, and concluded of which West California had the particular edge in the game. Nonetheless I actually also came to the realization that there were a good deal of random and unknown factors, and recommended to a clients that they do not guarantee on this kind of game. Here is my personal analysis I released before the game:

West Virginia versus Louisville

This sport provides all the signals of being one involving the ideal games associated with the year, using both teams coming into the game 7-0. It’s #3 positioned West Virginia vs. #5 ranked Louisville, both equally together with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s activity was a classic, with West Virginia coming backside from becoming down large in the final one fourth to winning around overtime, however,.

So what’s the adventure look like this year?

In the event this game were being played in a new basic field, West Florida would certainly probably be a 4-6 level favorite. Since this game was in Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if can make sense…

West Virginia can be on an unprecedented spin. They haven’t lost due to the fact March. 1, 2005, intending 14-0 since they missing to Florida Tech. In the last two times they’re 13-5 ATS in addition. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last being unfaithful game titles overall, and 8-2 ATS in their final 10 HIGHWAY games.

These types of are some very extraordinary stats that tilt often the scales in favor associated with WVU intended for tonight’s games. Plus, the particular added in bonus is that WVU will be GETTING +1 point. This will likely not look like substantially, but in a near match-up this way, that excess point can make the change between a good push and even a loss.

But some of us wonder what concerning Louisville?

Louisville’s gambling may be almost as good since WVU’s -except when this comes to Louisville within the point spread. In their very own very last 10 games, Louisville is actually 4-6 ATS. Of which said, Louisville is even so 7-3 ATS inside their previous 10 home game titles.

And if leaning towards WVU, here’s a daunting stat… Louisville hasn’t misplaced in your house since 12 18, 2003! During this current run Louisville is averaging 49. some points every game at home, while averaging only giving up 15. seven points per game from home. In case a person decided not to do the mathmatical, that means given that their last home decline they are yet to averaged beating their particular opposing team by about 34 factors per game.

Even greater amazing, the average line in these games has only also been 21 points. That means that Louisville has beaten the particular divide, on average, by means of 13 things per sport at home considering the year 2003.

Wow… how can a person not in favor of that?

Here’s exactly how…

Nearly all of those stats had been built up during the june 2006 season. There is much surprise, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to fine than great. They are yet to had recent games through which they’ve only scored 28, twenty-three, 24 points. That game titles weren’t against Kentkucky St. or Michigan. That they were being against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and even Kansas St.

Basically the fact that this is still a close game to call. Although what I look intended for is West Virginia’s protection to carry the time. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, plus Kansas St. can just about all hold Louisville under 30 points, then there’s simply no reason to think WVU can’t have one to typically the low to the middle of 20’s. My honest recommendation is usually to lay off that game and not gamble at all. There are better games this weekend break with more clear-cut strengths.

The final score on this game was Louisville forty four, West Va 34. Lousiville won because West Florida had 6 fumbles plus allowed Lousiville to go back some sort of punt for some sort of TD. The bottom line was of which West Virginia’s edge wasn’t so big that they could very well still win immediately after building so many mistakes. By simply not betting on this particular video game, people significant with regards to wagering saved money they can offer better employ on upcoming games.

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